Shares of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) have gained 12% since the company’s last earnings report. Over the past 5 fiscal quarters, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) has topped consensus earnings estimates in 5 quarters (41%), missed earnings in 0 quarters (0%), whereas at 0 occasion EPS met analyst expectations. HOG last reported earnings on October 23, 2018 when it released Sep-18 results that exceeded expectations. The company raked in $0.78 per share, -98.38% change on the same period last year. That was better than consensus for $0.53. Revenue for the recent quarter stood at $1.12 billion, up 17% on last year and above the $1.07 billion predicted by analysts. For this quarter, Wall Street analysts forecast revenue in a range of $1 billion to $1.1 billion, which should be compared with $1.04 billion generated last year. EPS is seen in a range of $0.16 to $0.42, against the $0.48 reported a year ago.
HOG’s 50 day simple moving average (SMA 50) price is $41.19 and its 200-day simple moving average (SMA 200) price is $42.52. The company’s stock currently has a total float of 161.9M shares. Its weekly volatility is hovering around 2.6% and felt 2.48% volatility in price over a month. On the upside, the share price will test short term resistance at around $42.98. On a downside, the stock is likely to find some support, which begins at $41.16. The failure to get near-term support could push it to $40.47.
Separately, it has been reported that multiple insider activity took place at Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG). SVP & CFO Olin John A sold 12,587 shares for $42,894 in transaction occurred on 2018/08/28. After making this transaction, the SVP & CFO owns a direct stake of 547,283 shares, worth $1,795,543, as per the last closing price. On 2018/08/10 Hund Lawrence G, President-HDFS at HOG, dumped 37,040 shares at an average price of $43.33 per share. The selling total is valued at $263,467.
Director, Zeitz Jochen had divested 1,598 shares through a trade on 2018/08/06. Following this activity, the insider holds 69,513 shares. Wall Street’s most bullish Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) analysts are predicting the share price to blow past $53 per share during the next 12 months. The current median share price forecast by them is $42, suggesting that the stock could increase 0.33% in that time frame. The average price target of $42.8 calls for a nearly 2.25% increase in the stock price.
It had seen a negative analyst call from BMO Capital Markets, which downgraded the stock from Outperform to Market Perform on October 19. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets, shed their positive views on October 19 by lowering it fromOutperform to Market Perform. Brokerage firm Wedbush, looks cautious as they stick to prior recommendation of Neutral, in a call on October 04. However, they did change the target price from $42 to $40. Wolfe Research, released new analyst coverage on October 02, calling the stock is Peer Perform.
When looking at valuations, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) has a cheap P/E of 11.86x as compared to industry average of 14.57x. Moreover, it trades for 11.14 times the next 12 months of expected earnings. Also, it is trading at rather expensive levels at just over 3.22x price/book and 1.18x price/sales. Compared to others, Harley-Davidson, Inc. is in a different league with regards to profitability, having net margins of 9.3%. To put some perspective around this, the industry’s average net margin is 9.91%. HOG’s ROE is 26.5%, which is also considerably better than the industry’s ROE of 14.51%. It’s also very liquid in the near term, with a current ratio of 1.1. The stock has a debt/capital of 3.3.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) sank as low as $41.59 Tuesday before getting settled at $41.86. The -3.53 percent decrease called for market cap to move at $6.85B. The price went up as high as $41.59 before retreating. Trading activity significantly improved as the volume at ready counter increased to 4,633,017 shares versus 2,425,420 in average daily trading volume over the past 20 days. So far this year, the volume has averaged about 2,456,374 shares. The stock is now 17.06% above against its bear-market low of $35.76 on October 26, 2018. It has retreated -34.97% since it’s 52-week high of $56.5 reached in January. Now the market price is down -19.2% on the year and down -17.73% YTD.